Demand for bandwidth across Australian households continues to rise, but peak demand may only modestly increase over the next two decades, according to a government research paper.
In the first installment of a new annual research paper series, the Bureau of Communications and Arts Research (BCAR) has forecast Australian households’ demand over the next decade for data and bandwidth delivered over fixed-line services.
According to a recent report by the Australian Communications and Media Industry (ACMA), demand for digital content and services continuous to be on the rise in Australia.
"We are also communicating in ways that we couldn't have predicted a decade - or even five years - ago," said ACMA chair Nerida O'Loughlin.
In the June quarter 2017, Australians downloaded 3.1 terabytes, up 43% on the same period in the year before, with 92% of all data downloaded over fixed-line broadband.
Fixed-line contributed to more than 90% of the download growth.
With almost 90% of adults accessing the internet, consumers are also diversifying their use of connected devices - smart TV's are becoming increasingly popular devices for internet access.
In Australia, 6.7 million adults now have a mobile but no fixed-line telephone at home
It estimates that the average Australian household will increase its monthly downloads from currently 94 gigabytes (GB) to 420 GB in 2026, and this will also require more bandwidth to transmit increasing amounts of information over a line or through a circuit. However, peak bandwidth demand of the highest usage households - typically a two adult/two children household - will increase only modestly from currently 11-20 megabits per second (Mbps) to 20-49 Mbps in 2026, and only 2% of households are expected to require 50 Mbps or more in 2026.
Most households will have their broadband needs met by the National Broadband Network, the report predicts.
A number of factors influence Australia's internet usage, especially the increasing demand for online video.
In 2016, the average household viewed around 35% of all screen content online, but this is set to increase to around 60% by 2026, and households continue to switch from standard definition to high definition video content.
The report also forecasts a rise in demand virtual reality devices that allow VR users to experience a simulated reality through a headset and other accompanying devices. In 2016 only 2% of households used virtual reality devices, but this is estimated to increase to 48% of households over the period.
In addition, Australians are set to adopt data intensive Internet of Things applications, and by 2026 the average household is forecast to have around 50 connected devices, such as for smart light and heating.
The paper also looks at the connectedness and use of broadband services across different generations. Early adopters of broadband services tend to younger, and are the main drivers of greater consumption of data and demand for bandwidth. But the intergenerational gap is likely to close as individuals continue their online habits as they age.